Dr. Brian Tinsley has been actively involved in observational and theoretical research on upper atmosphere processes (Aeronomy) for more than 40 years, and has served on many national and international organizations in this field. In 1986-88, while serving as Program Director for Aeronomy at the National Science Foundation, he had the opportunity to discuss long-standing problems in atmospheric science with program directors in areas of meteorology. This led him to begin research on the centuries old question of the effects of changes in the sun on day-to-day weather, year-to year climate changes, and global warming on the century time scale. During the past 12 years he has published more than a dozen papers on his developing theory of a mechanism for such effects. The theory involves the solar wind, as an alternative to the traditional view that changes in solar brightness were responsible. The solar wind is a highly conducting, extremely hot gas that blows from the sun outward over the earth. It impedes the flow of high energy cosmic ray particles coming in from the galaxy, and energizes high energy electrons in the earths radiation belts that precipitate into the atmosphere; both of these effects change the column conductivity between the ionosphere and the earths surface. The solar wind also changes the potential difference between the ionosphere and the earth in the polar cap regions. All three effects alter the ionosphere-earth current density (Jz) that is part of the global atmospheric electric circuit, and which flows down from the ionosphere to the surface and into and through clouds. There are good correlations, on the day-to-day time scale, between the above three solar wind - modulated inputs and small changes in atmospheric temperature and dynamics. Dr. Tinsley's theory is that the atmospheric response is due to changes in the rate of ice production at the upper surfaces of clouds, caused by the changes in current density into the clouds. ; This has consequences for cloud thickness and reflectivity to sunlight, and for precipitation rates and latent heat transfer, both of which are capable of affecting global atmospheric temperature and dynamics. About half of the global warming over the past century appears to be due to changes in the sun and the solar wind. Year to year and decadal climate changes attributable to the sun are significant compared to climate changes due to other sources. This mechanism also explains many reports of high rates of ice formation in certain types of clouds that has been a long-standing puzzle for cloud physicists.
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